4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 5

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 5-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP