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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(:34) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model