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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(14:27) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep right to 88-A.Hurns.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.78 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model