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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.35 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model