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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 43

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback. PENALTY on KC-14-D.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.46 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model