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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.37 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model