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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2016-10-30 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

DET
65.8%
HOU
34.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.085 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.166 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.174 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DET 24
–
HOU 21
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

DET

DeAndre Levy LB Out Knee
Darius Slay CB Out Hamstring
Eric Ebron TE Questionable Ankle
Nevin Lawson CB Questionable Foot
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Shoulder
Riley Reiff T Questionable Illness
Corey Robinson T Questionable Ankle
Cole Wick TE Questionable Knee

HOU

Brian Peters LB Out Quadricep
Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Elbow
Quintin Demps S Questionable Calf
Jonathan Grimes RB Questionable Ankle
Lamar Miller RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 13
–
HOU 20

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:01 TD HOU (13:01) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 07:09 TD HOU (7:09) 26-L.Miller right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – HOU 13
  • Q2 00:06 FG DET (:06) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – HOU 14
  • Q3 05:54 FG HOU (5:54) 8-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. DET 3 – HOU 17
  • Q4 14:55 TD DET (14:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 25-T.Riddick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DET 9 – HOU 17
  • Q4 04:14 FG HOU (4:14) 8-N.Novak 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. DET 10 – HOU 20
  • Q4 02:57 FG DET (2:57) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 13 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 60%

    (11:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 80-A.Boldin [51-J.Simon].

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:26) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to DET 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Roberts to DET 28 for 17 yards (20-D.Jones). PENALTY on DET-38-A.Barnes, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 11.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%

    (3:54) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:52) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to HOU 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 47 for 15 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 45%

    (10:18) 28-A.Blue left guard to DET 42 for 2 yards (61-K.Hyder; 99-K.Thornton).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:21) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at HOU 24 for 3 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 32%

    (2:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to DET 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 19 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:32) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to HOU 48, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 34-T.Ervin to DET 44 for 8 yards (26-D.Carey).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:37) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to DET 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Roberts to DET 15 for -3 yards (32-R.Nelson, 50-A.Dent).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:32) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to HOU 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 39 for 9 yards (34-Z.Zenner, 52-A.Williams).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (5:54) 8-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:51) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to DET 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Roberts to DET 22 for 8 yards (20-D.Jones).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:24) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to HOU 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 34-T.Ervin MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at HOU 35.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (4:14) 8-N.Novak 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (2:57) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.