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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 72

Detroit Lions 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to HOU 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 39 for 9 yards (34-Z.Zenner, 52-A.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.40 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model