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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 15

Houston Texans 14 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 8-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.57 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model