Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 77

Detroit Lions 10 – Houston Texans 17

(10:24) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to HOU 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 34-T.Ervin MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at HOU 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.46 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model