Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 49

Houston Texans 14 – Detroit Lions 0

(2:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to DET 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.52 EP
72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP

KICK -0.98 EP

32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model