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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 68

Houston Texans 14 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to DET 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Roberts to DET 15 for -3 yards (32-R.Nelson, 50-A.Dent).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model