4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 16

Detroit Lions 10 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 5-M.Prater 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.81 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model