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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 31

Detroit Lions 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.16 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model