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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 65

Houston Texans 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to DET 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Roberts to DET 28 for 17 yards (20-D.Jones). PENALTY on DET-38-A.Barnes, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.02 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model