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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 65

Detroit Lions 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at HOU 24 for 3 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model