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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
SD Home

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Thursday 2016-10-13 · 20:25 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

DEN
39.2%
SD
60.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.119 vs Trevor Siemian (DEN) +0.182 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Trevor Siemian in place of Paxton Lynch)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 19
–
SD 23
Projected margin: SD by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DEN

DeMarcus Ware LB Out Forearm
Trevor Siemian QB Questionable left Shoulder
Kayvon Webster CB Questionable Hamstring

SD

Jahleel Addae S Out Collarbone
Brandon Flowers CB Out Concussion
Joe Barksdale T Questionable Foot
Orlando Franklin G Questionable Ankle
Chris Hairston T Questionable Groin
Craig Mager CB Questionable Shoulder
Dexter McCluster RB Questionable Hamstring
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 13
–
SD 21

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:06 TD LAC (8:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 86-H.Henry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-V.Miller]. DEN 0 – SD 6
  • Q2 10:35 FG LAC (10:35) 2-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. DEN 0 – SD 10
  • Q2 05:44 FG DEN (5:44) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – SD 10
  • Q3 10:44 FG LAC (10:44) 2-J.Lambo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. DEN 3 – SD 13
  • Q3 07:19 FG LAC (7:19) 2-J.Lambo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. DEN 3 – SD 16
  • Q3 03:35 FG LAC (3:35) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. DEN 3 – SD 19
  • Q4 12:04 SAF LAC (12:04) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 88-D.Thomas ran ob at DEN 18 for 15 yards. PENALTY on DEN-73-R.Okung, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. Penalty on DEN-85-V.Green, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. DEN 3 – SD 21
  • Q4 08:13 TD DEN (8:13) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 16-B.Fowler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – SD 21
  • Q4 00:32 FG DEN (:32) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 13 – SD 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to LAC 6, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 89%

    (12:05) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to DEN 19 for 1 yard (58-V.Miller).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 90%

    (10:35) 2-J.Lambo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to LAC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-34-W.Parks. Denver challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to LAC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-34-W.Parks at LAC 11.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (5:44) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:43) 8-D.Kaser punts 60 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 16 for 6 yards (56-K.Toomer).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LAC 33, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster pushed ob at LAC 49 for 16 yards (42-C.Kreiter).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 32%

    (1:12) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LAC 42, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 46 for 4 yards (36-K.Webster).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (10:44) 2-J.Lambo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 94%

    (7:19) 2-J.Lambo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LAC 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 36 for 8 yards (52-C.Nelson).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%

    (3:35) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 53%

    (:14) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 53%

    (12:14) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to DEN 3, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:14) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 21-A.Talib to DEN 16 for 1 yard (25-D.Stuckey).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 35%

    (:07) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right to 87-J.Taylor (23-D.McCoil) [94-C.Liuget].