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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 54

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to LAC 6, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.24 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP