Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 58

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to LAC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-34-W.Parks. Denver challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to LAC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-34-W.Parks at LAC 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.55 EP
63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model