Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 84

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

(13:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LAC 42, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 46 for 4 yards (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.04 EP
67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model