4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 11

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model