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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 45

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right to 87-J.Taylor (23-D.McCoil) [94-C.Liuget].

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.65 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP