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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 8-D.Kaser punts 35 yards to DEN 3, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP