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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 13

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 2-J.Lambo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP