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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 38

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(:14) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model