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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model