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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

NO
53.7%
NYG
46.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.227 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.232 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 25
–
NYG 24
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NO

Delvin Breaux CB Out Fibula
Dannell Ellerbe LB Out Quadricep
Josh Hill TE Out Ankle
Terron Armstead T Questionable Quadricep

NYG

Robert Thomas DT Out Illness
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 13
–
NYG 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 02:45 TD NYG (2:45) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-J.Hankins), Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Jenkins at NYG 35. 20-J.Jenkins for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 00:11 FG NO (:11) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – NYG 7
  • Q3 02:51 FG NYG (2:51) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NO 3 – NYG 10
  • Q4 13:53 TD NO (13:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 83-W.Snead for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – NYG 10
  • Q4 08:49 FG NYG (8:49) 3-J.Brown 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NO 10 – NYG 13
  • Q4 02:59 FG NO (2:59) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 13 – NYG 13
  • Q4 00:02 FG NYG (:02) 3-J.Brown 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. Penalty on NO-90-N.Fairley, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined. NO 13 – NYG 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:31) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:16) 9-B.Wing punts 63 yards to NO 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 32 for 21 yards (91-K.Sheppard).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 14 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to NYG 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-36-D.Lasco.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 13-O.Beckham (24-S.Moore).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to NYG 33, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:12) 6-T.Morstead punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 90%

    (2:45) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-J.Hankins), Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Jenkins at NYG 35. 20-J.Jenkins for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (:11) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 64%

    (11:24) 3-J.Brown 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 17 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 21%

    (8:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-D.Harris to NYG 16 for 9 yards (56-M.Mauti).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 20 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 75%

    (2:51) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.25 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (8:49) 3-J.Brown 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:19) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to NO 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 87-T.Lewis to NO 26 for 6 yards (94-M.Herzlich).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 80%

    (2:59) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (:02) 3-J.Brown 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. Penalty on NO-90-N.Fairley, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined.