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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 3

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 13-O.Beckham (24-S.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +3.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 3, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model