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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Giants 10 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 3-J.Brown 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +4.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 1, worth +0.72 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.25 EP