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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 30

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.36 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model