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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to NYG 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-36-D.Lasco.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model