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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 5

New York Giants 13 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(:02) 3-J.Brown 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. Penalty on NO-90-N.Fairley, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.97 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 5, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model