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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP