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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 6-T.Morstead punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.93 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model