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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:11) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model