Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 3 – New York Giants 7

(8:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-D.Harris to NYG 16 for 9 yards (56-M.Mauti).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -3.05 EP

KICK -1.89 EP

21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
79% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model