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Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 16:05 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

MIA
20.7%
SEA
79.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.308 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 18
–
SEA 30
Projected margin: SEA by 12 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

MIA

Jay Ajayi RB Out Not Injury Related
Mike Pouncey C Out Hip
Terrence Fede DE Questionable Knee
Earl Mitchell DT Questionable Calf
Isaiah Pead RB Questionable Hamstring
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Knee
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Knee
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Hamstring

SEA

Nick Vannett TE Out Ankle
Germain Ifedi G Questionable Ankle
Jimmy Graham TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 10
–
SEA 12

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:15 FG SEA (5:15) 4-S.Hauschka 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. MIA 0 – SEA 3
  • Q2 08:49 FG MIA (8:49) 3-A.Franks 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 3 – SEA 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 4-S.Hauschka 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. MIA 3 – SEA 6
  • Q4 04:12 TD MIA (4:12) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – SEA 6
  • Q4 00:35 TD SEA (:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – SEA 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:11) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to MIA 19, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:27) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to SEA 33, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 14 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 89%

    (5:15) 4-S.Hauschka 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 93%

    (1:21) 29-A.Foster up the middle to SEA 17 for no gain (31-K.Chancellor).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (14:20) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to MIA 32, Center-48-N.Frese. 19-J.Grant to MIA 39 for 7 yards (91-C.Marsh). PENALTY on MIA, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 39.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:40) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to SEA 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 43 for 20 yards (31-M.Thomas). PENALTY on SEA-52-B.Coyle, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 28.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%

    (8:49) 3-A.Franks 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:52) 9-J.Ryan punts 48 yards to MIA 11, Center-48-N.Frese. 14-J.Landry to MIA 27 for 16 yards (40-T.Powell; 86-B.Williams).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:30) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:38) 9-J.Ryan punts 49 yards to MIA 33, Center-48-N.Frese. 19-J.Grant to MIA 38 for 5 yards (91-C.Marsh; 57-M.Morgan).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:00) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to SEA 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on SEA-33-K.McCray, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at SEA 16.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:56) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to SEA 6, Center-92-J.Denney. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 19 for 13 yards (48-M.Gray; 45-M.Hull).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:10) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 49 for 22 yards (42-S.Paysinger).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 74%

    (5:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 89-D.Baldwin (24-I.Abdul-Quddus).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 31%

    (3:32) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to SEA 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (10:45) 3-A.Franks 27 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-C.Marsh), Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 51%

    (7:17) 9-J.Ryan punts 27 yards to MIA 14, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:05) (Shotgun) 32-C.Michael up the middle to SEA 41 for 7 yards (47-K.Alonso).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 23%

    (2:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin ran ob at MIA 31 for 22 yards (24-I.Abdul-Quddus).