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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to SEA 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model