Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to SEA 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 43 for 20 yards (31-M.Thomas). PENALTY on SEA-52-B.Coyle, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.56 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model