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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 3-A.Franks 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model