4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to SEA 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on SEA-33-K.McCray, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at SEA 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.25 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model