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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 89-D.Baldwin (24-I.Abdul-Quddus).

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.99 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model