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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 4-S.Hauschka 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.68 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model