4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 56

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to MIA 19, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP