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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 17

Miami Dolphins 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 29-A.Foster up the middle to SEA 17 for no gain (31-K.Chancellor).

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.66 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model