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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 53

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin ran ob at MIA 31 for 22 yards (24-I.Abdul-Quddus).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.88 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model