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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
@
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Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2016-01-17 · 13:05 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SEA
43.1%
CAR
56.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.169 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CAR on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • SEA defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Cam Newton (CAR) +0.203 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.334 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SEA 24
–
CAR 28
Projected margin: CAR by 4 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

SEA

Will Tukuafu RB Doubtful Hamstring
Michael Bennett DE Probable Toe
Marshawn Lynch RB Probable Abdomen
Luke Willson TE Probable Concussion

CAR

Fozzy Whittaker RB Out Ankle
Ted Ginn WR Questionable Knee
Kony Ealy DE Probable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 24
–
CAR 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:35 TD CAR (12:35) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 11:46 TD CAR (11:46) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 24-M.Lynch INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Kuechly [99-K.Short] at SEA 14. 59-L.Kuechly for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – CAR 13
  • Q2 14:22 TD CAR (14:22) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – CAR 20
  • Q2 12:41 FG CAR (12:41) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. SEA 0 – CAR 24
  • Q2 06:32 TD CAR (6:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 88-G.Olsen for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – CAR 30
  • Q3 13:33 TD SEA (13:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 15-J.Kearse for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – CAR 31
  • Q3 07:48 TD SEA (7:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [69-J.Allen]. SEA 13 – CAR 31
  • Q4 06:11 TD SEA (6:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 15-J.Kearse for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [69-J.Allen]. SEA 20 – CAR 31
  • Q4 01:16 FG SEA (1:16) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 24 – CAR 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 31%

    (8:10) 9-J.Ryan punts 33 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 73%

    (12:41) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:18) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to CAR 46, Center-49-C.Gresham, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (2:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin to CAR 14 for 4 yards (41-R.Harper; 27-R.McClain).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:11) 8-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to SEA 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:30) 8-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to SEA 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for 8 yards (53-B.Jacobs).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 24%

    (4:21) 8-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to SEA 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 77
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (3:25) (Punt formation) 35-D.Shead right end pushed ob at SEA 40 for 17 yards (14-J.Webb).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 33%

    (:35) 9-J.Ryan punts 34 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-C.Gresham. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 12. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 12 for no gain (18-K.Williams).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:37) 8-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to SEA 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-20-K.Coleman.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 24%

    (2:55) 8-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to SEA 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on CAR-55-D.Mayo, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 17.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%

    (1:16) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.