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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 31 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 8-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to SEA 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.83 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model