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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 18

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(2:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin to CAR 14 for 4 yards (41-R.Harper; 27-R.McClain).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model