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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 46

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(:35) 9-J.Ryan punts 34 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-C.Gresham. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 12. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 12 for no gain (18-K.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.56 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model